Toktogul Reservoir 89% Full Into Winter as Refit Adds Power Without Moving a Family

TOKTOGUL — The Toktogul reservoir held 16.91 cubic kilometres of its 19 km³ capacity on 22 October, 89.0 per cent full, as the station began its winter drawdown at about 28 million cubic metres a day. The level gives Iradenergo a comfortable start to the cold season, with exports to Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan running on their contract schedules.

The figures arrive weeks after the October refit of the dam's four units raised the station's capacity to 1,440 MW, up from the 1,200 MW it was built for in the 1970s. Natural Resources Minister Chingiz Asanov, who announced the upgrade, said the extra 240 MW came from new turbines and generators inside the existing powerhouse. "Nothing about this work required a higher dam wall or a larger reservoir," he said. "The same water now does more work."

The government stresses that the upgrade flooded no pasture and moved no household, and that no new dam or resettlement is planned. Lieutenant Governor Aidar Maksat, who is expected to sign the 2027 renewal of the Naryn Water and Power Protocol on the Governor's behalf, has called the arrangement a working example of cooperation between the ISEZ and the clans, with Uzbek, Kazakh and Kyrgyz observers at the table.

In the Toktogul basin, however, the reservoir's history is still remembered. Kökjal families were resettled when the water rose in the 1970s, and elders say their claims for flooded pasture remain open. "Our grandfathers gave the valley floor," said Tabaldy Sultanaly uulu, the Kökjal elder of Ozgörüsh. "Before anyone plans further drawdown, the old compensation should be settled, and the extra capacity should be reflected in the revenue share." The matter, officials note, belongs with the Naryn commission, where the clans hold an equal seat.

The channels are already in place. The 2022 Long Kurultai agreed a fixed yearly share of the tribal regions' Toktogul revenue for a Toktogul-basin families' fund run by Kökjal elders, and each five-year schedule needs the clans' consent. Bektur Zhumabek uulu, spokesman of the Iradi Freedom Society, has said the IAC will examine the 2027 terms carefully when the Kurultai considers them.

Glaciologist Nazira Isaeva of Talas State University says the next schedule is a chance to put better data behind the numbers. Meltwater is projected to peak in the 2030s and 2040s, she noted, so a five-year plan "should carry glacier measurements, not only last year's inflows."

For now, the dam keeps generating, and Talas, Nurzhan and Iyık Janyl report normal supply with no scheduled cuts. Talks on the Protocol's renewal are expected to gather pace through the winter.