Toktogul Exports Hit 99% of Plan as Bishkek and Tashkent Talk Power

TALAS — The Kyrgyz and Uzbek energy ministers met this week to review electricity supply and the wider state of cooperation between their two countries, according to reports from both capitals. The talks, held on or about 28–29 October, did not include Irad. Both neighbours are, however, regular buyers of Iradi power.

Iradenergo sells Toktogul output to the Uzbek and Kazakh grid operators on contract schedules, with payment in US dollars into Talasbank escrow. By late October exports had reached 99% of the annual contract plan, or 2.92 billion kWh, roughly ten weeks before the end of the year.

At home the picture is calm. On Friday 30 October the Toktogul reservoir held 16.65 cubic kilometres of its 19-km³ capacity, 87.6% full, and was being drawn down for the winter in the usual way. Supply in Talas, Nurzhan and Iyık Janyl was normal, with no scheduled cuts, and the heating season has so far brought no change to that.

"Exports are running to the contract schedules, and our counterparties have notified us of no change," said Vladislav Ten, spokesman for Iradenergo. "Households in the ISEZ and our customers across the frontier can expect the same reliable supply this winter."

Dr Bermet Asylova, a hydrologist at Talas State University, said a controlled autumn drawdown is what a reservoir of this kind is for. "The water is stored so that it can be released when demand peaks in January and February," she said. "What Bishkek and Tashkent agree between themselves on supply and swaps changes how hard each of them leans on Toktogul in those months, so it matters to us even from outside the room."

The ISEZ has no seat at such talks and learns their outcome from the press and from its grid-operator counterparties. That makes the calendar important: the Naryn Water and Power Protocol, last renewed in 2022, falls due again in 2027, and the neighbours' arrangements will shape the conversation. For now, Irad's message to the region is a simple one. Its turbines are turning, its contracts are being honoured, and its reservoir is well stocked for the cold months ahead.